Bayes' theorem, introduced by the English mathematician Thomas Bayes (1702-1761), is a fundamental concept in probability used extensively in medical decision-making and certain areas of biomedical science. In clinical epidemiology, Bayes' theorem helps assess the likelihood that a group of individuals with a specific trait has a particular disease, based on the disease's overall prevalence and the probability of that trait appearing in both healthy and diseased populations.A typical use of Bayes' theorem is in clinical decision-making, where it helps determine the probability of a diagnosis when specific symptoms, signs, or test results are present. For instance, the effectiveness of the exercise cardiac test in predicting significant coronary artery disease (CAD) is partly influenced by the "pre-test likelihood" of CAD, which corresponds to the "prior probability" in Bayes' theorem.Technically, Bayes' theorem evaluates the influence of new information on the credibility of competing scientific hypotheses by calculating the product of each hypothesis's initial plausibility and the probability of observing the current data given that hypothesis. These values are then adjusted so that their sum equals one. In Bayes' theorem:- The initial plausibility is known as the "prior probability."- The probability of the current data given a specific hypothesis is referred to as the "conditional probability."- The adjusted values are termed the "posterior probabilities."
